More often than not, the NFL’s “Coach of the Year” is the most challenging award to handicap in the sports betting world. It’s tough to get a feel for what it takes to win the award.
During his legendary tenure as the New England Patriots head coach, Bill Belichick has won three “Coach of the Year” awards, and none since 2010. In 2022, this might be a great year to put your chips on the “Bill for COY” table.
As sports betting sites put together their future odds for the 2022 season, where does arguably the greatest coach of all time slide in?
Bill Belichick 2022 Coach of the Year Sports Betting Odds
|Coach||Caesars Sportsbook||DraftKings Sportsbook||FanDuel Sportsbook||BetMGM Sportsbook|
Odds available at time of publishing on Sep. 7, 2022.
The NFL Coach of the Year field is crowded at the top. Los Angeles Chargers head coach Brandon Staley is the favorite across all the major US sportsbooks. He’s followed closely by a flurry of first-year head coaches, coaches in their first year with a new team, among others.
Way down the list is good ‘ole Bill. Belichick has very long odds on most sports betting sites. His best odds can be found on Caesars Sportsbook, where he is +2000 to win the award. On BetMGM Sportsbook, his odds are at +4000. If this isn’t a good bet, I don’t know what is.
This is the definition of low risk, high reward. A $10 bet on Belichick to win Coach of the Year on BetMGM will get you $400 if he walks away with the award.
However, a lot has to happen for him to win the award. In particular, the Patriots have to have a good year. That is a tall hill to climb, given how strong the AFC will be this season. There are a lot of factors that go into figuring out who will be in contention to win the award.
Past Coach Of The Year Winners
Can Bill get it done? Here’s a look at every Coach of the Year winner in the last ten years.
- 2012 – Bruce Arians (IND): 2-14 to 9-3 standing in for Chuck Pagano
- 2013 – Ron Rivera (CAR): 7-9 to 12-4 and 2-seed
- 2014 – Bruce Arians (ARI): 10-6 to 11-5 after losing Carson Palmer
- 2015 – Ron Rivera (CAR): 7-8-1 to 15-1 and 1-seed
- 2016 – Jason Garrett (DAL): 4-12 to 13-3 and 1-seed
- 2017 – Sean McVay (LAR): 4-12 to 11-5 as a first-year coach division winner
- 2018 – Matt Nagy (CHI): 5-11 to 12-4 as a first-year coach division winner
- 2019 – John Harbaugh (BAL): 10-6 to 14-2 and 1-seed
- 2020 – Kevin Stefanski (CLE): 6-10 to 11-5 as a first-year coach division winner
- 2021 – Mike Vrabel (TEN): Improved from 11-5 to 12-5 and 1-seed
What It Takes To Win NFL Coach Of The Year
When you look at this list, you can see some patterns. First, the Coach of the Year has to win a lot of games. Every winner in the last ten seasons won at least 11 games (except Arians, who took over midseason). Seven of them won a division title.
So, Belichick bettors would need the Pats to win a bunch of games. Likely more than last year, and more than their win total expectations. Right now the Patriots over/under is at according to most sportsbooks.
NFL awards can also sometimes become “narrative” awards. Sometimes, a coach will win the award because it is “their time.” Belichick has been a trendy pick for the award in the past couple of seasons because many experts believed that he should be rewarded if the Patriots succeed without former QB Tom Brady.
This year the narrative is stirring away from Bill, mostly because sports betting sites don’t have a lot of faith in the Patriots. Also, many expect the Buffalo Bills, who are in the AFC East with the Pats, to run away with the division and have one of the better records in the league. I’m personally surprised that Bills head coach Sean McDermott isn’t higher on the odds list on most sports betting sites.