One of the most popular NBA betting markets is season win totals. Sportsbooks project a win total for each team, and you bet the over/under on whether they’ll hit the number.
It’s an easy enough bet to understand, but is it easy to get right? Here’s how to bet NBA win totals odds online in Massachusetts.
NBA win totals odds
See below (when sportsbooks go live) for the current NBA win total over/unders as posted at Massachusetts online sportsbooks.
Best MA sportsbooks for NBA win totals
Here is a look at some of the top-ranked MA online sports betting sites to consider for betting on NBA win totals.
This Massachusetts-based sportsbook provides some solid all-around options for betting on NBA futures. The DraftKings MA Sportsbook app betting menu includes:
- NBA win total over/unders (before and during the season)
- NBA team futures, including odds on the playoffs, division winners and NBA Finals
- An eclectic range of futures, including individual player props for every game and season-long awards
- NBA win totals odds
- More season-long team props/milestones
- Flexible parlays both for individual games and futures
BetMGM Sports is a trusted name and betting partner of the NBA. The BetMGM Massachusetts Sportsbook app is another go-to option for NBA futures betting, offering:
- Adjusted NBA win totals before and during the season
- Odds on the NBA Finals and conference winners
- Boosted odds on certain futures bets throughout the season
Vegas win total odds vs. MA sportsbook odds
If you notice a discrepancy between the odds at your local MA sportsbook and consensus Las Vegas odds for any particular game or prop, there’s likely a simple reason why.
Generally, hometown fans will put a much higher volume of bets on their home team, which can result in a little bit of line movement. For example, if the Boston Celtics‘ season win total is set at 49.5 and the vast majority of Massachusetts bettors take the over, the line may move up to 50.5 or even higher.
Sportsbooks elsewhere may not be as affected by any action on the Celtics as local Massachusetts sportsbooks, so national lines may not swing at all.
How do regular-season NBA win totals odds work?
NBA season win totals odds take several different factors into account. Some of these include:
- Last season’s performance
- Key offseason acquisitions
- Statistical modeling/forecasting
Determining these factors help the books decide where a win total line should be.
Win totals are one of many futures bets you can make. Rather than focusing on a single game, futures bets predict season-long outcomes for teams or individual players.
When you get paid out on futures bets depends on the NBA betting rules of your sportsbook. Some books will pay in-season as soon as a bet is confirmed, while others cash futures bets only when the season is completed.
It is usually set in stone once you lock in a futures bet, though some notable exceptions exist. If the season is canceled or shortened (i.e., 2020), most sportsbooks will refund your bet unless the outcome has already been determined. Critical injuries are not grounds for voiding a futures bet. In fact, they are crucial considerations you need to make before the season when placing your bet.
Do NBA win totals change as the season progresses?
NBA win totals odds adjust once the season starts to account for early season results. For instance, if the Celtics begin the season 5-15, their predicted season-long total wins would likely drop significantly.
You can place bets on win totals odds throughout the regular season, but it’s worth noting that the sportsbook betting lines won’t always be available midseason.
When is the best time to bet on NBA win totals?
There is no clear-cut method for betting on NBA projected wins. Many people prefer to make their bets before the season because they can find advantages through research. Also, betting in the off-season is the easiest way to guarantee your bet gets locked in, due to odds routinely coming off the boards in-season.
Some bettors may wait for larger sample sizes and see how teams/players look early on. While there is some merit to this approach, it’s worth remembering that the longer you wait, the harder it may be to find favorable odds on this betting market.
NBA win totals betting trends
In the past, a team that finished over .500 (42 wins) was generally in contention for a playoff spot. NBA team win totals in the high forties were a near guarantee to get in.
But with the NBA playoff expansion in 2020, the net for being a playoff contender is even wider. We will likely see more sub-.500 teams competing for and getting a spot in the play-in games.
When sizing up the NBA win totals betting market, there are several vital statistical trends to keep in mind.
1. Point differential
Point differential is a crucial area to watch. There is a strong correlation between this metric and total wins. When sizing up teams to bet on, you may be able to find over or undervalued candidates based on their point differential.
2. Two-point field goal percentage
This played a significant role in predicting win totals during the 2019-20 season. According to a study conducted on every NBA stat that season, it was the best predictor of any stat: a 71 percent correlation rate to total wins.
3. Offensive rating
This measures estimated points per 100 possessions. It also plays a big role in determining a team’s success, with all of the top 10 teams in that category earning a playoff berth during the 2018-19 season.
More NBA futures odds
In addition to betting on NBA over-under wins, many other NBA futures are available to bet on both before and during the season. Some of the most popular bets include:
- Team to win the NBA Finals
- Team to win the Eastern/Western Conference
- Team to win their division
- Team to make the playoffs (y/n)
- Player to win MVP
- Player to win Rookie of the Year
- Defensive Player of the Year
- Most Improved Player