The New England Patriots 2022-23 season has been a bit of a roller coaster so far. A lot of it has had to do with the quarterback position, who has been healthy, who has been playing better, and so on. With Mac Jones back from injury and taking back his quarterback position, it does seem that New England’s season is back on track.
The Pats enter their Week 10 bye with a record of 5-4. Let’s take a moment to recap how the season has gone thus far:
Patriots 5-4 Game Breakdown
Week 1: L at Dolphins 20-7
- Spread: Pats (+3) ATS loss
- Total 46.5: Under
The season opener looked like a bad loss initially, but a positive can be found knowing that the defense held maybe the NFL’s best offense to only 20 points.
Week 2: W at Steelers 17-14
- Spread: Pats (-3) ATS push
- Total 40: Under
Early in the season, a win is a win. If these teams were to play again, the Pats would most likely be favored by much more than a field goal.
Week 3: L vs. Ravens 37-26
- Spread: Pats (+2.5) ATS loss
- Total 45: Over
This was the worst defensive performance of the season for the Pats. It also didn’t help that Mac Jones tossed three interceptions and got injured late in the game.
Week 4: L at Packers 27-24
- Spread: Pats (+9.5) ATS win
- Total 40.5: Over
While the Patriots did cover the spread and had another quarterback injury, this is a game that Patriots fans wish they could have back after seeing how bad the Packers have been this season.
Week 5: W at Lions 29-0
- Spread: Pats (-3) ATS win
- Total 47: Under
This game was known for New England’s incredible defensive performance and the Bailey Zappe breakout game. Before this game, the Lions offense had scored an average of 32.75 points over their first four games, so the shutout was big time by the Pats.
Week 6: W at Browns 38-15
- Spread: Pats (+2.5) ATS win
- Total 43.5: Over
This was one of the most impressive wins of the year for New England, with Zappe leading the way. New England scored 38 points against one of the NFL’s better defenses.
Week 7: L vs. Bears 33-14
- Spread: Pats (-8.5) ATS loss
- Total 40: Over
This was the most frustrating loss of the year for New England, with Mac Jones returning and then being replaced by Zappe. While the loss looked terrible, this game was a breakout for Chicago’s Justin Fields. He played very well starting in this game and has continued that success the past two weeks.
Week 8: W at Jets 22-17
- Spread: Pats (-3) ATS win
- Total 40: Under
Mac Jones started and essentially retook his starting quarterback position with a massive win over the NFL cinderella of the year and division rival Jets.
Week 9: W vs. Colts 26-3
- Spread: Pats (-5) ATS win
- Total 40: Under
It was the first time all year New England played and performed exactly as they should, winning handily and looking good on both sides of the ball over a lesser team.
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Quick Look At The Upcoming Schedule
The bad news for New England is the last seven games of their schedule will be the most challenging stretch of the year. In the first nine games, only four of the nine teams they played currently have winning records. Entering Week 10, six of their eight remaining games are against teams with winning records.
There are several pieces of good news, though:
- Half of their remaining games are at home.
- The Patriots have had several surprise breakout players.
- Bailey Zappe has proved that should Jones struggle with health again, he is more than capable of filling in at a high level.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has been the team’s top back after starting the year playing behind Damien Harris. Harris is injured again, but Stevenson was still the lead back even when he came back for a game.
- The Patriot defense is one of the best in the NFL, as they rank 7th in average points per game allowed.
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New England Playoff Outlook
Massachusetts sportsbooks currently have New England with unfavorable odds of making the playoffs. Betting-wise, the best value for the Patriots to make the playoffs is +165 at PointsBet and BetMGM. The best value for New England to miss the playoffs is -165 at DraftKings.
The Patriots would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. If the Patriots went 4-4 to end the year, that would give them a chance of making the playoffs, but it would not be a sure thing. If New England goes 5-3 down the stretch, that will give them an excellent chance to make the playoffs. New England will need Mac Jones to take another step forward in his progression if they want to be a playoff team and potential contender.
