No Tom Brady, No Problem. Sportsbooks Expect Patriots To Get Big NFL Week 3 Win

Posted on September 24, 2020

The Week 3 home game for New England against the Las Vegas Raiders is one of those that Pats fans likely have circled as a “must-win”. Their favorite team is trying to keep pace with the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East standings.

Fortunately for them, the latest Patriots betting odds are favorable to their cause.

Sportsbooks like DraftKings have New England as a comfortable home favorite Sunday. The total market suggests a low-scoring affair as well.

The latest Patriots betting odds for Week 3

While sports betting remains illegal in Massachusetts, you can cross the New Hampshire border and place either online or retail bets legally there.

DraftKings handles the sports betting operations on behalf of the New Hampshire Lottery in the Granite State.

That sportsbook has the Pats as a -275 favorite for Sunday’s noon ET game against Las Vegas on CBS. The spread on the Patriots is currently -5.5 (-118). The total sits at just 48, with -110 odds on either side.

New England enters Sunday’s game tied for third in the league for touchdowns scored (seven). The Raiders, meanwhile, are tied for the second-most TDs with eight.

So is the low total justified? The Pats lead the league in interceptions, averaging two per game so far. Opponents have completed almost 71% of passes for an average of nearly nine yards per attempt.

Las Vegas’ defense hasn’t been eye-popping yet this season, either. The Raiders have forced just one turnover and recorded just one sack. While their red-zone defense against the pass has been better than the Patriots’, they have struggled against the run in the same area.

The low total seems to be more of a lack of faith in these teams’ offenses than a reflection of stellar defensive play. That means some opportunity for DraftKings customers this Sunday.

Why this Sunday could look more like Week 1 than Week 2

In New England’s opener against the Miami Dolphins, the Pats ran for 217 yards but just one touchdown. Back on the same field, they face a Raiders defense that might enable them to have similar rushing success, but also find the end zone more often.

Las Vegas is allowing nearly five yards per carry and has given up a higher percentage of first downs against the run than all but three other NFL teams. That might mean a great stat line for the Patriots’ ground threats.

Quarterback Cam Newton leads New England in all three pertinent rushing stat categories so far: attempts, touchdowns, and yards. His 4.7 yards per attempt average is also almost exactly what the Raiders allow per attempt on average.

If New England can produce a couple more interceptions and exploit Las Vegas’ weak ground defense, the Pats’ spread and the over on the total look like solid bets.

Any props on Newton’s yardage production and scoring also look like sound investments based on these numbers.

DraftKings seems to think that while the Patriots may dominate possession and maintain a lead throughout this game, that won’t translate to a lot of trips to the end zone.

The third week in this new offense for Newton may be enough to surpass those expectations and create some wins for Massachusetts bettors who crossed the New Hampshire border.

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Derek Helling

Derek Helling is a freelance journalist who resides in Kansas City, Mo. He is a 2013 graduate of the University of Iowa and covers the intersections of sports with business and the law.

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