The MLB game featuring Red Sox vs. Marlins is scheduled for Wednesday, July 3, at 4:40 p.m. at loanDepot Park in Miami, FL. The game will be broadcast on BSFL. The weather forecast predicts few clouds with a high of 89 degrees. Starting pitcher, Brayan Bello for the Red Sox holds an NRFI record of 11-3, while Trevor Rogers for the Marlins has a record of 10-6. Massachusetts sportsbooks list the NRFI odds near -135 and the YRFI odds at +100 for this matchup. Get the latest Red Sox vs. Marlins NRFI/YRFI prediction, odds, and stats.
NRFI/YRFI odds for Red Sox vs. Marlins 7/3/24
For the upcoming MLB game featuring Red Sox vs. Marlins, the odds are leaning towards NRFI, according to DraftKings, with NRFI at -135 and YRFI at +100. The implied probability suggests a 57.45% chance for NRFI, indicating no run in the first inning is more likely. Conversely, YRFI stands at a 50% implied probability, suggesting a balanced chance for a run in the first inning.
- DraftKings YRFI: +100
- DraftKings NRFI: -135
Odds are subject to change for Red Sox vs. Marlins NRFI/YRFI
Red Sox vs. Marlins NRFI/YRFI Prediction July 3
Trevor Rogers has not been as clean in allowing first-inning runs this season with a 10-6 record, whereas Brayan Bello has been more successful. Rogers hasn’t been great against left-handed hitters, but does hold the platoon advantage against Devers/Duran. Walks are a concern for both arms and their is speed on both sides that can get into positions early. However, Rogers’s HR numbers are down at home, as you would expect, and neutralizing the Sox lefties can get them out of potential jams.
Red Sox vs. Marlins NRFI/YRFI Prediction: NRFI
Red Sox vs. Marlins Pitching Matchup
Brayan Bello of the Red Sox shows a WHIP of 1.47, K% at 19.6, BB% at 8.9, HR/9 at 1.39, and a NRFI/YRFI record of 11-3. Trevor Rogers from the Marlins counters with a WHIP of 1.56, K% at 17, BB% at 9.6, HR/9 at 1.11, and a NRFI/YRFI record of 10-6. Bello has been rocky of late but is still one of Boston’s above average starters in the rotation.
Looking at performance splits, Bello has been more effective against right-handed batters with a lower WHIP of 1.30 and HR/9 of 0.96, while Rogers shows a better grip in home games with a WHIP of 1.58 and HR/9 of 0.80.
| Trevor Rogers (L) (MIA) | Stat | Brayan Bello (R) (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-6 | NRFI/YRFI Record | 11-3 |
| 17% | K% | 19.6% |
| 9.6% | BB% | 8.9% |
| 1.56 | WHIP | 1.47 |
| 1.11 | HR/9 | 1.39 |
Brayan Bello Split Stats
| Home | Stat | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 17.5% | K% | 21.1% |
| 10.9% | BB% | 7.4% |
| 1.66 | WHIP | 1.35 |
| 1.24 | HR/9 | 1.49 |
| vs. Left | Stat | vs. Right |
|---|---|---|
| 18.4% | K% | 21.9% |
| 10.8% | BB% | 7.5% |
| 1.66 | WHIP | 1.30 |
| 1.87 | HR/9 | 0.96 |
Trevor Rogers Split Stats
| Home | Stat | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 19.2% | K% | 14.3% |
| 10.1% | BB% | 8.9% |
| 1.58 | WHIP | 1.54 |
| 0.80 | HR/9 | 1.49 |
| vs. Left | Stat | vs. Right |
|---|---|---|
| 19.3% | K% | 16.8% |
| 11.4% | BB% | 9.3% |
| 1.68 | WHIP | 1.52 |
| 0.95 | HR/9 | 1.16 |
Red Sox vs. Marlins NRFI/YRFI Record
- Red Sox NRFI: 70.24%
- Red Sox YRFI: 29.76%
- Red Sox Opponent NRFI: 77.38%
- Red Sox Opponent YRFI: 22.62%
- Marlins NRFI: 77.65%
- Marlins YRFI: 22.35%
- Marlins Opponent NRFI: 67.06%
- Marlins Opponent YRFI: 32.94%
Red Sox Lineup vs. Trevor Rogers (L)
With Jarren Duran leading off, he has a .305 wOBA and .068 ISO against LHP. Rafael Devers is not bad against left-handed pitching, but drops off with a .331 wOBA and .181 ISO. The Red Sox’s mix of left and right-hand hitters, including Rob Refsnyder and Tyler O’Neill, could exploit Rogers’ 9.6% BB% and 17% K%, hinting at potential on-base opportunities and scoring drives. Both O’Neill and Refsnyder have notable numbers against left-handed pitching.
Marlins Lineup vs. Brayan Bello (R)
Against Brayan Bello, the Marlins lineup, led by Jazz Chisholm Jr. with a .317 wOBA and Bryan De La Cruz’s .344 wOBA, looks to capitalize on Bello’s 1.47 WHIP and 1.39 HR/9 vulnerabilities. Josh Bell, with a lower K% of 15.9 and a .289 wOBA, could play a crucial role in maintaining pressure on Bello, whose 19.6% K% and 8.9% BB% is not all that frightening.
